Russia economy explained – why putin regime will collapse

The reason why putin regime is suffering economic recession is not only because of low oil prices (look at Norway who also is oil exporting country) and EU & US sanctions on putin regime – problem roots goes much deeper than that. It goes back into 2001 – 2003 when oil prices where booming and Russia economy just started to get on it’s feet from crisis that hit 1998.

Cash from oil was flowing in Russia economy and it kept that way for next 10 years which was a chance for putin regime to make decision what way will Russia develop. One option was to invest in developing: industrial complex, agriculture, science, democracy, free market, free media, civil rights, free elections, fight with corruption – that all would bring to Russia more foreign investment, differentiate economy structure, stabilize social structure, etc. But instead putin regime choose different path: create regime control over media, attack opposition till their leaders jailed, killed, silenced, etc. Court system works for regime, but regarding economy  putin regime didn’t invest in: industrial complex, agriculture, science, etc. – because it was easier to earn money now from oil export and buy everything needed as import from EU, US, China etc. So year by year more Russian manufacturing companies closed because could not compete with EU, US, China import. In order to stop unemployment level from rising in Russia – putin regime made different steps, like increased bureaucrats, created different kind of projects that had nothing to do with economic reason. Of course all those projects where created in order to steal more and more Russian nation money that was coming in from oil.

So more cash to elite, more simple jobs to people of Russia and everyone put on blind eye on corruption and economic reason and that could work for 10 years. Because oil export was booming, price of oil was high and everyone get his share of a pie. If something was necessary – it was simply imported. So In result today Russia manufacturing industry can’t work without importing many parts that are produced in EU, US. Now what that means for Russia economy in future? It means that as RUB continues to collapse it’s more and more expensive for manufacturing industry to produce anything as they need to import parts from EU, US but they must pay more and more RUB. In result their products get’s more and more expensive and they loose the market share. So they have to lay off more workers and this problem only will increase.

There is no way out of this. RUB will crash because of low oil prices and because Russia economy structure is not differentiated (as for example Norway has) and linked to oil export. Problem with Russia economy started before putin regime invaded Ukraine. It goes back into 2013. So only way for putin regime to stay in power is to create artificial outside enemy in order to mobilize Russian patriotism so that Russian do not to attack putin regime who makes him self as only savior. This can be done only if putin regime controls main stream media – which is what putin regime does. Putin regime and it’s elite knows that there is no way out of this situation. They know Russia is heading for a collapse. But they have no options to solve this. They know they have been stealing oil money for more than 10 years, they know they have been breaking international law by invading other countries like Georgia and Ukraine. They know they can’t simply leave their positions. Because than they will be hanged. And they know they can’t escape Russia economy collapse.

They know they can’t start full open war with Ukraine or worse with NATO – that would only make Russia collapse faster. They are stuck. And have no way out of this situation. Of course China know that, US knows that, EU knows that. So everyone will take their actions to get more benefit out of this and to protect it’s interests. Time is not on putin regime side.

For those who do understand Russian:

My prediction is that putin regime will collapse in time frame something around October 2015 – June 2016. It will get ugly and bloody.

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Russia economy explained – why putin regime will collapse

7 thoughts on “Russia economy explained – why putin regime will collapse

  1. Vladimir Konstantin says:

    Hey, you admin of this blog!! Putin is a great leader and Russia has an enormous potential to develop(both socially and morally, unlike the US which is morally devoid) and prosper, but it’s the Zionist Slavemasters of the USA, who have thrown illegal sanctions at Russia so that it could degrade.

    Again,when it comes to pleasing the Jews, the hypocrisy and lies get piling high. Tell me why is it illegal(according to you westerners) for Russia to intervene in Ukraine to restore it’s legitimate and democratically elected Government, but on the other hand, legal for Saudi Arabia to kill people in Yemen, when it’s tyrant President got ousted??

    YOU CAN DELETE THIS COMMENT, BUT NOT THE TRUTH.

    Like

    1. Vladimir Konstantin:Hey, you admin of this blog!!
      Admin: Yes, I am.

      Vladimir Konstantin: Putin is a great leader and Russia has an enormous potential to develop(both socially and morally, unlike the US which is morally devoid) and prosper,

      Admin: Russia has potential to develop and prosper – but not under ciriminal putin regime elite rule that steals away Russian money. For example: you answer me – why there was no open tender for this project but instead putin gave this project to his crony – without open tender? Why?

      Russia Awards Lucrative Crimea Bridge Contract to Putin’s Crony
      https://news.vice.com/article/russia-awards-lucrative-crimea-bridge-contract-to-putins-crony

      Tell me – how criminal putin regime elite can afford wester luxuries (and why if they hate western countries) that can’t be bought with their official salaries.

      Peskov’s watch as a wake-up call
      http://nobsrussia.com/2015/08/04/peskovs-watch-as-a-wake-up-call/

      I could continue with other examples. Tell me would a true leader of Russia do this to it’s citizens if he stands for their interests and not oligarch interests?
      https://stopputinregime.wordpress.com/2015/08/07/putin-regime-interests-conflicts-with-russian-interests/

      Vladimir Konstantin: but it’s the Zionist Slavemasters of the USA, who have thrown illegal sanctions at Russia so that it could degrade.
      What is illegal? Which court has declared such sanctions as “illegal”? Who said it was illegal?
      Again,when it comes to pleasing the Jews, the hypocrisy and lies get piling high. Tell me why is it illegal(according to you westerners) for Russia to intervene in Ukraine to restore it’s legitimate and democratically elected Government, but on the other hand, legal for Saudi Arabia to kill people in Yemen, when it’s tyrant President got ousted??

      Admin: In 2014 People of Ukraine had 2 elections – they elected their president Petro Poroshenko and parliament members – those elections where recognized as free, democratic and legit by all countries in the world – including Russian Federation. That is why Russia continues to make deals with Ukraine – because Russia officially has recognized president and parliament as legit government body to make deals with. What criminal putin regime does – is using hybrid war against Ukraine by using Russian army soldiers without recognition signatures of Russian Army. So officialy Russia is not in war with Ukraine, but unofficially – is. Also that is why UN has declared that annexation of Crimea was illegal.

      Vladimir Konstantin: YOU CAN DELETE THIS COMMENT, BUT NOT THE TRUTH.

      Admin: Now you know the truth. Check out other articles and video materials.
      Also check out sources: https://stopputinregime.wordpress.com/about/sources/

      Good luck! And may you wake up from criminal putin regime propaganda spell!

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  2. james says:

    Very interesting article. I agree with your assessment that this regime is doomed to collapse, but I do not believe it will happen as soon as you predict. Regimes who have access to all of the wealth and resources of nations as large as Russia seem to be able to sustain themselves well beyond what would seem possible. I think it will take years if not decades for the collapse to happen. Also, just because one corrupt regime collapses does not insure another will not take its place. The USSR collapsed and look what took its place. I hope when Putin’s regime does finally collapse it will be replaced with a democratic system in Russia; but I fear that is unlikely.

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    1. Yes, James. Well, knowing the way Russian think – you could expect anything. It could happen next year and it could take 10 years. Their mood regarding putin can change in few days. If you asked Russian about USSR future back in 90-ties they though it will last for ever – few days later everyone hate it and went out in streets. So you never know. Putin knows that that is why he has such a paranoia regarding any public gatherings and free information flow. But what option does he have? Nothing. He has to stand till last breath. It’s either that or jail or bullet in the head. He just can leave and go on pension. It’s impossible after all the crimes he has done.

      About next regime in Russia – yeah, it is a problem. Because Russians are lazy and irresponsible. They don’t want to fight for their freedom, they like when someone else has already thought of them and they don’t need to think about government issues. And so – as they relax – elite takes power over them and resources. That is what happened. I don’t know will that ever change. I doubt that.

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      1. Thank you for the response, more interesting stuff there. I was in Ukraine last month attending the premiere of the film “I Am A Ukrainian: Personal Stories of a Revolution” at the US embassy in Kyiv. (I co-wrote the song “The Last Stand (Of Free Thinking People)” which is featured in that film). While in Ukraine I got to meet with a lot of the leaders of the 2014 revolution and spoke with them about the challenges they face. In Ukraine there is a very visible difference between the younger generation and the older generation. The younger people are sick of the corruption and excited about the future all at the same time. And there are some of the older generation that seem to be willing to go along with the younger generation even though they are not as comfortable with it. Is it the same in Russia? Is the younger generation there just simmering and waiting for the right catalyst to set them off and stand up for change? Or are they generally as complacent as the older generations?

        When I was in Kyiv I spoke with someone who was in his early 30’s and he talked about how even at his age his first instinct is to turn to the government and wait for them to help him out or provide for him. But he said the younger generation that were born after Ukrainian independence are not that way, they do not look to the government; they look to themselves to solve their problems. I would love to see that same mindset take hold in Russia.

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